EU member states’ adoption of the recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), combined with higher penalties on fossil marine fuels, is expected to significantly increase demand for alternative bunkers starting in 2026.
FuelEU Maritime will continue to support this shift by requiring a 2% reduction in marine fuel greenhouse gas emissions through 2029, increasing to 6% in 2030, while the expanded EU Emissions Trading System will raise costs by covering methane and nitrous oxide emissions for the first time.
RED III is also creating regulatory divergence across European ports, particularly between the Netherlands and Belgium, with differing treatment of waste-based biodiesel such as used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) influencing bunker pricing and port choice.
While FuelEU Maritime places no cap on fuels made from used cooking oil, national RED III implementations may impose additional compliance costs, prompting suppliers to price Ucome blends at a premium in certain EU ports.
Outside Europe, Singapore has strengthened its position as a leading renewable bunkering hub, with biodiesel sales more than doubling in 2025 and surpassing Rotterdam volumes amid EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin biodiesel.
As regulations tighten and pricing signals diverge, shipowners are expected to become more strategic about where and how they bunker, accelerating structural shifts in global marine fuel markets through 2026.
