The world’s largest oil supply shock has now entered its second month, with energy markets facing disruptions on a scale never previously experienced in modern history.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol, global supply losses have reached approximately 11 million barrels per day of oil and 140 billion cubic metres of gas—exceeding the combined impact of the major oil crises of the 1970s.
Unlike previous disruptions, this crisis has hit both oil and gas simultaneously, while also involving wartime damage to energy infrastructure, with more than 40 energy assets across nine countries reportedly severely damaged.
Rebuilding capacity is expected to take years, with QatarEnergy estimating repairs at the Ras Laffan facilities alone could take up to five years, signaling prolonged instability for global fuel supply.
Second- and third-order economic impacts are now emerging, including reduced fertilizer availability that threatens food supply chains, as well as semiconductor disruption caused by shortages of helium.
Industrial production across Asia is already being affected, with petrochemical operating rates outside China expected to drop sharply, while major manufacturing hubs such as Morbi, India have reportedly experienced widespread shutdowns due to gas shortages.
Shipping and logistics are also facing pressure, with container availability tightening as vessels remain trapped in the Gulf and bunker supply disruptions impacting key markets such as Singapore.
The aviation sector is beginning to warn of flight cancellations and capacity reductions, with European carriers preparing contingency plans as jet fuel markets tighten.
The IEA has warned that emergency demand-reduction measures may become necessary, ranging from reduced highway speeds and increased public transport usage to limiting air travel and shifting industrial fuel consumption.
For global shipping, the message is clear: bunker fuel volatility and supply uncertainty may persist for months, potentially reshaping trade flows, freight costs, and fuel procurement strategies well into the year.
