The shipping industry is not on pace to meet its climate goal of sourcing at least 5–10% of its fuel from scalable zero-emission sources (SZEF) by 2030, according to the latest Progress towards shipping’s 2030 breakthrough report. The study, developed by the UCL Energy Institute, the Global Maritime Forum’s Getting to Zero Coalition, and the Climate High-Level Champions, warns that weak demand signals and stalled finance are slowing the transition despite advances in technology.
The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) recently adopted Net Zero Framework set an ambitious path for shipping’s decarbonisation. However, many of the key details, including the incentives to encourage early adoption of SZEF, remain under negotiation ahead of the framework’s 2027 entry into force. The outcome of these discussions will be critical in determining whether the industry can realistically achieve the 2030 breakthrough target.
The report highlights three urgent areas for action. First, the industry must support a robust IMO reward mechanism that prioritises SZEF and gives investors confidence. Second, it must raise awareness of the risks facing owners of non-SZEF-capable vessels, pushing them toward retrofits and future-ready investments. Finally, national and regional policies should be leveraged to fill gaps left by global regulations.
On the technology side, progress has been steady. Methanol engines are already commercially viable, ammonia engines are in advanced testing, and overall fuel production pipelines are expanding. Yet the demand outlook is less encouraging. Too few SZEF-capable ships are currently on order, with projections showing that only about 37% of the necessary demand will materialize by 2030. This could leave a gap equivalent to 9 million tonnes of fuel oil or around 400 large container vessels.
Finance also remains a critical bottleneck. While early investments in SZEF projects showed promise, momentum has slowed, and capital continues to flow disproportionately toward conventional, fossil-fuelled ships. Without stronger policy signals, private investment is unlikely to shift at the scale required to reach the 5% target.
The report underscores that hitting the 5% threshold by 2030 is vital. At that level, the infrastructure, supply chains, and technologies supporting zero-emission fuels could reach critical mass, enabling exponential adoption. Missing this milestone, however, would put the entire 2050 net-zero goal at risk.
With shipping responsible for about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than the entire nation of Germany, decarbonising the sector is a top global priority. As maritime trade is projected to quadruple by 2050, urgent action is needed now to avoid locking in decades of emissions and derailing long-term climate ambitions.
