With global maritime trade projected to expand by nearly 50% by mid-century, the marine fuels industry is preparing for significant shifts. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping to net zero by around 2050, marking a turning point for the sector.
In April, the IMO Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) reached a milestone agreement to implement a net-zero framework for international shipping. This framework will reshape fuel consumption trends and drive the adoption of cleaner alternatives over the coming decades.
Between now and 2030, global marine fuel sales are expected to rise just 2%, lagging behind trade growth as efficiency gains curb demand. Traditional oil-based marine bunkers are forecast to peak in the mid-2020s at under 5.3 million barrels per day, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerging as the dominant growth driver. By 2030, LNG is expected to displace more than 0.4 million barrels per day of oil.
The transition accelerates after 2040 as synthetic fuels (e-fuels) and green hydrogen-based solutions gain momentum. These fuels are anticipated to displace roughly 1.0 million barrels per day of traditional fuels by 2050, signaling a decisive shift towards low and zero carbon marine energy sources.
The IMO’s net-zero framework will also bring higher costs for fossil fuels through a GHG emissions pricing system. By 2035, very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) could face a 90% cost increase, while LNG-fuelled vessels may see a 40% rise. Part of the revenues will support the IMO Net-Zero Fund to finance new technologies and contribute to equitable energy transition programs worldwide.
Green liquid fuels, especially methanol, are expected to gain the most traction in the near term due to their commercial readiness and compatibility with existing engine technology. Meanwhile, Europe is projected to lead in e-fuel adoption, supported by strong regulatory frameworks such as the Fuel EU Maritime regulation and the EU ETS.
By mid-century, fuels like green ammonia may achieve cost competitiveness in regions with robust carbon policies, particularly in the European Economic Area. However, widespread displacement of VLSFO on a global scale remains challenging under the current IMO pricing mechanism.
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With global maritime trade projected to expand by nearly 50% by mid-century, the marine fuels industry is preparing for significant shifts. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping to net zero by around 2050, marking a turning point for the sector.
In April, the IMO Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) reached a milestone agreement to implement a net-zero framework for international shipping. This framework will reshape fuel consumption trends and drive the adoption of cleaner alternatives over the coming decades.
Between now and 2030, global marine fuel sales are expected to rise just 2%, lagging behind trade growth as efficiency gains curb demand. Traditional oil-based marine bunkers are forecast to peak in the mid-2020s at under 5.3 million barrels per day, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerging as the dominant growth driver. By 2030, LNG is expected to displace more than 0.4 million barrels per day of oil.
The transition accelerates after 2040 as synthetic fuels (e-fuels) and green hydrogen-based solutions gain momentum. These fuels are anticipated to displace roughly 1.0 million barrels per day of traditional fuels by 2050, signaling a decisive shift towards low and zero carbon marine energy sources.
The IMO’s net-zero framework will also bring higher costs for fossil fuels through a GHG emissions pricing system. By 2035, very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) could face a 90% cost increase, while LNG-fuelled vessels may see a 40% rise. Part of the revenues will support the IMO Net-Zero Fund to finance new technologies and contribute to equitable energy transition programs worldwide.
Green liquid fuels, especially methanol, are expected to gain the most traction in the near term due to their commercial readiness and compatibility with existing engine technology. Meanwhile, Europe is projected to lead in e-fuel adoption, supported by strong regulatory frameworks such as the Fuel EU Maritime regulation and the EU ETS.
By mid-century, fuels like green ammonia may achieve cost competitiveness in regions with robust carbon policies, particularly in the European Economic Area. However, widespread displacement of VLSFO on a global scale remains challenging under the current IMO pricing mechanism.
