As momentum builds following the IMO’s landmark 2025 Net-Zero Framework, a new brief from the Getting to Zero Coalition and the Global Maritime Forum is offering a clearer picture of where the global shipping industry is heading—and what it will take to get there.
The insight brief, IMO’s Policy Measures: What’s Next for Shipping’s Fuel Transition?, highlights how the IMO’s policy structure—centered on Global Fuel Intensity (GFI) targets and emissions penalties—can drive the shift to scalable zero-emission fuels. But as the report warns, its success hinges on early and meaningful incentives for clean fuel adoption, especially e-fuels derived from green hydrogen.
Dual-Fuel Vessels and the Push Toward Ammonia
The report’s TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) modeling, developed by UMAS and UCL, projects that dual-fuel ships running on LNG and ammonia will be the most cost-effective pathway in the early phase of decarbonization, with ammonia becoming the cheapest fuel by the late 2030s—particularly in its “blue” form (produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture).
While this finding offers short-term clarity, it also signals a risk: synthetic e-fuels remain non-competitive under current market conditions. Without stronger incentives, many shipowners may delay critical investment decisions or take a conservative “wait and see” approach—undermining progress toward IMO’s long-term goals.
Designing a System That Rewards Decarbonization
The brief also dives into the IMO’s multi-tiered compliance structure, where ships will be assessed annually on their emissions performance between 2028 and 2035—and again in 2040. Those exceeding emissions caps will be required to purchase “remedial units” (RUs) or buy surplus units (SUs) from over-complying vessels. Meanwhile, ships using zero- or near-zero-emission fuels will qualify for financial rewards, though exact terms are still under discussion.
While this framework provides flexibility, experts agree it must evolve quickly to shape long-term investment behaviors. Without well-defined rewards and predictable pricing mechanisms, the commercial viability of e-fuels may remain out of reach.
The Road Ahead: Action Now or Pay Later
According to Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, “The IMO’s new framework is a historic step forward—but unless e-fuels become competitive early on, the sector risks running into bottlenecks as its decarbonisation efforts scale up.”
This insight echoes a growing sentiment across the sector: the tools for change exist, but industry leaders must act decisively. From ordering dual-fuel ammonia-ready vessels to engaging in the development of e-fuel supply chains, now is the time to position for the future.
At Clipper Oil, We’re Ready to Navigate the Transition
At Clipper Oil, we recognize the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in this historic energy transition. Our team is closely tracking the evolving IMO regulations and supporting customers with fuel solutions tailored to both today’s needs and tomorrow’s requirements.
Whether you’re evaluating dual-fuel vessels, navigating emissions compliance, or exploring future fuel options like ammonia or biofuels, Clipper Oil is your trusted partner in the next phase of maritime energy.
Contact us today to learn how we can help your fleet stay efficient, compliant, and competitive—now and in the net-zero future.
