Dramatic headlines may alarm, but a closer look at import patterns reveals a more nuanced reality. The headline \”Imports still plunging, down 14% year on year\” stems from the conclusion of the COVID-driven import boom in 2022. The decline, though seemingly large, marks a return to normalcy rather than a crisis.
In contrast, the headline \”Imports unchanged versus pre-pandemic levels\” captures the key point: U.S. containerized imports remain steady and healthy. The data does not signal consumer weakness or an impending recession.
In July, Descartes reported 2,187,810 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of imports in U.S. ports, a 14% drop from the previous year. However, this aligns closely with July 2019, highlighting a return to typical trade levels.
Notably, imports from China and South Korea increased in July, and U.S. imports have risen 1.7% over the year. While port activity varies, Savannah and New York/New Jersey saw gains, while Los Angeles experienced a dip.
Global Port Tracker reinforces the trend, projecting a rise in imports for upcoming months, indicating a strong shipping season before winter holidays.
Ben Hackett notes that slower import growth is due to retailers depleting excess inventory. As inventories normalize, cargo growth is expected.
Freight Waves SONAR\’s booking index further boosts optimism, hinting at robust imports in the weeks ahead.
In conclusion, the initial alarm may be unwarranted; import patterns are showing resilience and stability. The shift from an import surge to steady performance is not necessarily a negative sign for the U.S. economy.
