Wärtsilä predicts that sustainable marine fuels might become more cost-effective than traditional oil-based bunkers by 2035, considering emission regulations such as carbon pricing mechanisms. Despite fluctuations, EUA prices are expected to rise over the long term, with the EU aiming for climate neutrality by 2050.
Brussels plans to introduce FuelEU Maritime regulations next year, tightening greenhouse gas intensity standards for marine energy in EU-related trades. Sustainable fuels are projected to remain three to five times more expensive than conventional fuels by 2030, but regulatory changes could double the cost of conventional fuels by the end of the decade.
Wärtsilä’s research suggests that by 2035, low-carbon methanol, ammonia, compressed hydrogen, and marine battery technologies could cost 60%-80% of current VLSFO prices. Biofuels like biodiesel and bioethanol are expected to grow significantly in the 2030s, followed by an expansion of blue fuels such as ammonia produced with carbon capture and storage technology.
The International Maritime Organization aims for a 20%-30% reduction in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by 2030, with net-zero emissions targeted by 2050. Achieving this goal will require cutting vessel speeds by 30% and adopting alternative fuels equivalent to 270 million mt of fuel oil. Roger Holm, president of Wärtsilä’s marine division, emphasizes the critical role of sustainable fuels in reaching these ambitious targets.
