Diesel prices in Europe and the United States have reached record levels as disruptions to major refining and export markets tighten global fuel supplies. European diesel futures more than doubled from the beginning of 2026 before reaching an all-time high last week.
The pressure is being felt across major producing regions. Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have disrupted refineries and exports, while refineries elsewhere are operating at exceptionally high rates to compensate for lost supply.
The International Energy Agency noted that many refineries are already operating close to capacity, leaving limited options to increase production further. Middle East diesel exports fell by roughly half between March and August compared with the same period last year, averaging about 800,000 barrels per day.
Europe is particularly exposed to these disruptions, having sourced nearly 41% of its diesel imports from the Middle East in 2025. Diesel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub were also at their lowest seasonal level in years in September, adding further pressure to the market.
The United States is facing similar conditions, with average retail diesel prices exceeding $6 per gallon for the first time. Despite U.S. refiners operating near full capacity, diesel inventories remain nearly 15% below the five-year seasonal average.
Asian markets are also seeing elevated diesel prices following disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supplies. With refining capacity already stretched across major markets, further disruptions to production, exports or shipping routes could keep global diesel and marine fuel markets under pressure in the months ahead.
